Well, not quite. Rick Hasen of Election Law Blog thinks that, in the wake of California's gay marriage ruling, the conservatives will come out in force. He writes:
This helps John McCain because those conservative voters may not have come out in great numbers for him, but they will come out now to vote for this amendment, and they are more likely to vote for McCain than for the Democrat once they are already voting. That's not to say that California will go red, but it is to say that the Democratic nominee will have to devote more resources to this very expensive to campaign in state.
I'm not sure -- Kerry won California by 1.2 million votes (54 - 45). The last Rasmussen poll (April 17) had Obama with a 7 point lead over McCain (50 - 43), plus it's just as expensive for the Republicans to campaign there as it for the Democrats. I think it could become an expensive way for John McCain to lose by half-a-million votes. However, I do actually think this helps out the GOP a lot in some of the tighter congressional races.
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