Election implications of good news in Iraq

ABC News' Marcus Baram discusses the challenges posed to both McCain and Obama in the wake of good news in Iraq.

For McCain, the news is good, he championed the surge when Obama wanted to cut and run:

McCain, who repeatedly promoted a surge policy until the Bush administration took action, has basked in the apparent success of the surge and criticized Obama for supporting a withdrawal, telling ABC News' Charles Gibson, "I believe if we'd done what he said -- and I think it's becoming clearer to the American people -- there would have been chaos, genocide, and we'd have been back."

The facts on the ground have changed substantially in recent months. Violence across Iraq hit a four-year low in May, according to the U.S. military, and the number of American casualties that month were the lowest since the invasion.

The narrative also lends itself to a nice play on words:

"There is one exception to [Obama's] 'Yes, we can" mantra," he said. "[Obama's] argument in Iraq has always been 'No, we can't' and McCain can say that he found a way to succeed. ... There has always been the follow-up question, how do we get out. You don't want to get out in a dishonorable way or in a way that creates greater chaos."

For Obama, though, the negative public perception of the war remains very well entrenched, with 83% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans thinking things are going badly. The only real argument he can use (aside from 'we-never-should've-been-there-in-the-first-place') is that because things are going well, there is no reason to stay, although McCain can again attack his naiveté.

There is, of course, another way that Obama could use Iraq to his advantage, and that is if things take a turn for the worse:

Another adviser to the Obama campaign argued that while the surge has brought about phenomenal changes on the ground, security remains fragile and the situation in Iraq can change overnight, just as the bombing of the al-Askari Mosque in Samarra in 2006, which plunged the country into horrific sectarian violence, showed.

I actually find this kind of statement incredibly offensive. Obama's position on Iraq and thus his chances of winning the Presidency would benefit from a summer of violence in Baghdad? That is some twisted logic! There is something incredibly discomforting, almost perverse, about the prospective President of the United States benefitting from the deaths of the troops he hopes to command.