McCain will lose...it's science

Mort Kondracke (in Roll Call via RCP) argues that new 'scholarly analysis' by Alan Abramowitz (which we'll get to in a second) suggests that John McCain will have to 'perform miracles' if he is to have any hope of beating Obama.

Abramowitz is a Professor at Emory University and has developed this 'electoral barometer', (presumably using crayons, play-doh and elbow macaroni):

The formula adds the incumbent president’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval), the second-quarter election-year GDP growth rate multiplied by five (emphasizing the importance of the economy) and then (factoring in time-for-a-change sentiment) subtracts 25 points if the in-party is finishing a second term.

Bush’s net approval now stands at minus 40. The first-quarter growth rate was 0.6 percent and Bush is finishing eight years, meaning that this year’s electoral barometer currently stands at minus 62.

Apparently, minus 62 is bad. Really bad. Scholarly analysis bad. Miracle bad. I doubt McCain will lose much sleep.