Victory in Iraq?

Contentions' Michael J. Totten discussed what 'victory' will be in Iraq. People think of Iraq in terms that are just way too simplistic. As Totten writes, Iraq has actually had three wars since 2003, and each should be treated accordingly:

Part of the problem here is that the war in Iraq is usually thought of as a single war in Iraq. But there have been at least three wars in Iraq since 2003 – the U.S.-led war against Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party regime, the civil war between Sunni and Shia militias, and the insurgencies against government and international forces waged by a constellation of guerrilla and terrorist groups. All three wars are distinct from each other, and two of the three are already over.

The war against Saddam Hussein and his government ended when the regime was overthrown and what remained of its army was disbanded. You might say it didn’t officially end until he was captured in December of 2003, but he effectively lost when he was demoted from absolute dictator to fugitive. No matter what else might happen, Saddam Hussein will never be considered victorious.

The civil war between Sunni and Shia militias likewise is over. We know that now because we can look back in hindsight. Not one single person was killed in ethno-sectarian conflict in May or June of this year. That particular conflict had been winding down since December of 2006 when the monthly casualties began freefalling in an almost straight line from a high of more than 2,000 a month down to nothing. Nobody won that war. It’s just over.

As far as the final war, the insurgents war, that may never be "truly" over. Its unconventionality virtually precludes it from the type of post-war actions that became so familiar in the 20th century. There will be no surrender or peace accords here.  But if there are no attacks for at least a few months once the Iraqis take over then maybe (just maybe) we can start calling it a victory. Of course, it'll probably become an Obama victory--that he won the war that Bush lost...which is why a Petreaus-Jindal ticket in 2012 (anyone?) is so important.