Waiting for change

I read an interesting post by Paul West on The Swamp yesterday about how Obama can lose. While the media celebrates Obama's massive lead in the polls, perhaps we should think back to Dukakis' 17-point over George H. W. Bush in July of '88. What makes everyone so certain that history won't repeat itself? Who doesn't think Obama is capable of losing this election? Who doesn't think the debates are going to throw up an Obama uber-gaffe, the type of which even the mainstream media can't ignore? The great thing for McCain is that he gets to return to his favoured role as the plucky underdog, full of pith and vinegar and spoiling for a fight. Obama, on the other hand, has to lead from the front -- and try and not look too arrogant in doing so.

The pundits maintain that it'll be the independents that will determine the outcome of this election and so far, while Obama is leading the polls, he is still largely unknown to this group of voters--he's for change, but what kind, how, when and why are all a little hazy:

There are more than four months left to finish that job. But voters are complaining that they aren't getting the information they need and that too much time is being spent on trivia.

That criticism is hard to dispute. Many news organizations picked up the revelation, from a Rolling Stone interview, that Obama has about 30 Bob Dylan songs on his iPod, including the entire "Blood on the Tracks" album. His wife's clothing and hairstyle have been dissected at length.

Far less attention has been paid to the lack of new thinking behind his candidacy, which closely tracks liberal Democratic orthodoxy.

____

"I just know 'vote for change.' I don't know what change," she says. "I know there has been a lot of media coverage, but I'm still waiting for the meat of it."

(...)

Kimberly Aldinger, 45, of Seven Valleys, a dialysis technician who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary, is open to Obama but "until I see what he wants to change and how he's going to change it, I am totally undecided."

Sheryl Randol, 51, a single mother of three who works for a pharmaceutical company, wants to see the Iraq war ended but doesn't know enough about either candidate.

Obama "has to show me that he's got the intelligence and the people around him to make a difference globally," she says. "I want to see concrete plans, not just spin."

The problem now for Obama is that his message of change is starting to sound a little hollow. Such is the danger of teasing people with a peak into Pandora's box, they want to know more, they want all the answers and they want them now. The longer Obama maintains this fuzziness, the intriguing elusiveness he has almost perfected will start to solidify, turning him into an illusory character, detached from ordinary voters and fighting against the presumption of duplicity.

Unconventional Veeps

Wow, Politico looks at some of the more unconventional choices for VP. Honestly, the only possibility here, I think, is Meg Whitman, but even that's a push -- in an economic crisis, having a billionaire on the ticket is easy to attack.

Here's a run down of the potentials:

For the Republicans:

Bill Gates Several Republicans and even some moderate Democrats called the Microsoft founder John McCain's dream running mate. Gates could position McCain as a trusted voice on the economy and his multi-billion dollar commitment to charitable giving could soften up the campaign's image.

Yeah, apart from the fact that he's donated to Obama and Clinton but not McCain, I can't see the American people electing someone like Gates for any kind of office. He's also one of the few people in the world that can do far more off his own back than he could do from inside the VP's office.

Meg Whitman While former Hewlett-Packard head honcho Carly Fiorina has been McCain's most visible emissary from the business world, a top McCain fundraiser and several other Republican Party staffers said that former eBay CEO Meg Whitman would be the better businesswoman pick. 

The 51-year-old Harvard Business School grad is already a player in the party. Last month she raised $2.5 million for the presumptive Republican nominee at an event at her Silicon Valley home, and she's rumored to have her eye on the 2010 California gubernatorial race.

Again, I'm not sure a billionaire businessperson is necessarily a great pick for VP. There seems to be this bizarre idea that a successful business person is the best person to have in charge of the economy. I'm not sure where this kind of logic comes from -- I've met plenty of successful business men and women who haven't had a scooby about macroeconomics. I know it's mostly a PR thing but are the electorate really going to vote for a billionaire VP because they think they'll know how to fix the economy? No way.

Rep. Eric Cantor The House's chief deputy whip is well-respected in the party for his conservative record on fiscal and military issues, according to several Republican lobbyists, and he's from Virgina, a key battleground state. At 45, he's a baby compared to McCain but is already serving in his fourth term in the House, giving him more legislative experience then Obama.

I actually quite like Cantor...but, rather sadly, I don't think he's known well enough to get on the ticket, especially if Obama picks a big name, the weak Republican ticket would look very, very weak.

For the Democrats:

William Cohen The former Republican Senator from Maine and Clinton-era Secretary of Defense would double down the ticket's national security bona fides while also burnishing its bipartisan image.

Not a chance.

Robert Rubin The Clinton-era Treasury Secretary would bring a wealth of economic expertise to the ticket, said several young Democratic political consultants. The long-time Clintonite could reassure economically anxious voters, who remember him as the steady hand that oversaw spectacular economic growth in the 1990s. And adding Rubin, who'd endorsed Hillary Clinton in the primary, could help return the remaining strays from her flock to the fold.

This, actually, would be quite a good fit, that is, if Rubin weren't a "consigliore" for Citigroup's "most elite clients".

Timothy Roemer The former Indiana Congressman is a moderate Democrat with solid foreign policy credentials, having helped to create the Department of Homeland Security and the 9/11 Commission, on which he later served as a member.

There's no way Obama would have a pro-lifer on the ticket. As much as McCain likes his friends, and is a bit of a grudge-merchant, Obama is incredibly arrogant about a lot of issues -- there's no way he'd have a despicable, protector-of-the-unborn next to him in the White House. 

Donna Shalala Her service as Health and Human Services Secretary under President Clinton and at the Department of Housing and Urban Development under President Carter have put her at the crux of two key issues is this year's campaign—health insurance and the subprime crisis.

I don't know much about her beyond what I read in this article, but from what I've read about her, she hurts Obama more than she helps him (which, going by what the Obama camp said last week, is exactly the type of candidate they're trying to avoid).

Colin Powell The Republican would bring a distinguished military career, national security gravitas and a bipartisan reputation to the Democratic ticket. He's hinted before that he could jump to Obama, a rumor Robert Novak resurrected last week.

But is America ready for a double-minority ticket? One of our most well-known academic experts said yes, but consultants from both parties and Democratic campaign staffers disagreed. And then there's the whole weapons-of-mass-destruction issue. Sure, Powell had doubts about the pre-war intelligence, but now Democratic voters could have doubts about his.

Surely not. This wouldn't be the dumbest thing the Democrats have ever done, but it'd certainly make their top 10. How are the far left of the party going to feel about having a war-monger in their midst?

All in all a fairly far-fetched list, but good fun nonetheless.

Real Change

Great piece in The Telegraph about real change in America by Lionel Shriver. She reflects on the racial progress made after reading Ellen Feldman's "Scottsboro"-- the story of 9 innocent black youths tried for rape in the 30s.